New type 2 diabetes diagnoses are rising rapidly in England among people under 40, particularly women aged 20–29, an Imperial College London analysis of NHS data shows.
Researchers studied England’s National Diabetes Audit data covering 2011–2024. Rates are declining slightly among older adults, although they still account for most new diagnoses.
About 12,000 people under 30 in England are living with type 2 diabetes, according to NHS England estimates. The condition accounts for roughly 90% of the UK’s six million diabetes cases.
Body mass index at diagnosis is also increasing faster among younger patients. Between 2019 and 2025, new obesity cases rose by 16% among people aged 20–29 and by almost 20% among those aged 30–39.
“We think that the earlier onset of severe obesity in young people is increasing their type 2 diabetes risk in early life and pulling down their age at diagnosis. This is really worrying given the poor health outcomes from early-onset type 2 diabetes,” — lead researcher Dr Shivani Misra.
The increase is not confined to ethnic minority groups traditionally considered at higher risk. The data also shows incidence rising in white populations.
“We now see that incidence is also increasing in white populations too, showing that this public health challenge is broadening across the generations,” — Dr Shivani Misra.
Type 2 diabetes that develops at a younger age can be more aggressive and raise the risk of heart attacks and strokes. Early diagnosis helps reduce the risk of long-term organ damage, while healthy eating and maintaining a healthy weight can sometimes put the condition into remission.
